Hitotsubashi Trade/Urban Economics Workshop – Motohiro Kumagai (Australian National University) , Kohei Takeda (National University of Singapore)
2025/12/23
| Date | December 23, 2025 15:30–18:40 |
Speaker, Title | Motohiro Kumagai (Australian National University) The Horse, Battles, and the State Kohei Takeda (National University of Singapore) Universities and the Rise of Services |
| Abstract | Motohiro Kumagai (Australian National University) 15:30-17:00 Title: The Horse, Battles, and the State Abstract: This research explores the military origins of state evolution from 1000 BCE to the present, with a focus on cavalry. I show a strong impact of cavalry using three sources of exogenous variation: environmental suitability for horses, proximity to the earliest metal-bit site, and the reintroduction of horses through the Columbian Exchange. The effects are time-varying, peaking between 1000 and 1500 CE and declining thereafter. I then demonstrate that cavalry shaped state development through battles, territorial expansion, and increases in state capacity. The analysis also shows that cavalry history influenced institutional forms: ethnic groups and countries with longer exposure to cavalry are more likely to be autocratic. Overall, the findings underscore how military technologies shaped both the long-run trajectory and modern geography of state formation and institutional development, and how deep-rooted forces can generate time-varying effects. Kohei Takeda (National University of Singapore) 17:10–18:40 Title: Universities and the Rise of Services Abstract: Structural transformation from manufacturing to services varies widely across regions. Using regional data from the US, we document four stylized facts: (i) commuting zones with universities experience higher growth in service employment and establishments, especially high-skilled services; (ii) the college wage premium is higher in commuting zones with universities; (iii) structural transformation within tasks and skills is the primary driver of the differential growth of services across regions; and (iv) new tasks emerge predominantly in places with universities. We develop a task-based theory of local structural transformation in which universities function as talent hubs that supply high-skilled labor, and innovation hubs that create new tasks and increase the demand for skills. Our theory and quantitative analysis suggest that the innovation role jointly accounts for the higher growth in services and the skill premium in regions with universities. Our framework provides microfoundations for skill-biased structural change and highlights the role of higher education in shaping regional economic dynamics. |
| Venue | IER Conference room |
| Organizer | Kentaro Nakajima (Institute of Innovation Research) |
| Co-Host | Graduate School of Economics / Hitotsubashi Trade/Urban Economics Workshop/The Urban Economics Workshop at the University of Tokyo |
| Details | https://sites.google.com/view/hitotsubashi-trade-urban-econ/ |